Politics

Iran Accuses Trump of ‘Big Lies’ Ahead of Geneva Talks in Face of Major US Military Deployment

Video: Joining “Chicago Tonight” are Jacqueline Saper, an author and Iranian American commentator who is a native of Tehran; Ibrahim Abusharif, a journalism and Middle Eastern studies professor at Northwestern University and author of “Social Media, Religious Authority, and the Arab Gulf Crisis”; Robert Pape, a political science professor at the University of Chicago who is the founding director of the Chicago Project on Security and Threats; and Richard Porter, an attorney and longtime member of the Republican National Committee who served as a White House advisor to President George H. W. Bush and Vice President Dan Quayle. (Produced by Joel Ortiz)

---

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Iran pushed back Wednesday against U.S. President Donald Trump’s pressure tactics ahead of critical talks in Geneva over Tehran’s nuclear program, alternating between calling his remarks “big lies” and saying negotiations may yield an agreement through “honorable diplomacy.”

The remarks by two Iranian officials came a day before the talks and as America has assembled its biggest deployment of aircraft and warships to the Middle East in decades. The buildup is part of Trump’s efforts to get a deal to constrain Iran’s nuclear program while the country struggles at home with growing dissent following nationwide protests last month.

Trump has repeatedly threatened to attack Iran if negotiations fail. Mideast nations fear an attack could spiral into a new regional war as the embers of the yearslong Israel-Hamas war still smolder. Already, Iran has said all U.S. military bases in the Mideast would be considered legitimate targets, putting at risk tens of thousands of American service members.

Satellite photos shot Tuesday by Planet Labs PBC and analyzed by The Associated Press appeared to show the American vessels that typically are docked in Bahrain, the home of the U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet, all out at sea. The 5th Fleet referred questions to the U.S. military’s Central Command, which declined to comment. Before Iran’s attack on Qatar in June, the 5th Fleet similarly scattered its ships at sea to protect against a potential attack.

Protests and Media Coverage 

“Today’s protests are about dignity and daily life, not ideology,” said Jacqueline Saper, an Iranian-born author and activist who wrote “From Miniskirt to Hijab: A Girl in Revolutionary Iran.” 

Though many factors play into the protests across Iran, one of the largest reasons is Iranian people’s discontent during an economic crisis where inflation has raised the price of day-to-day necessities. Another big factor, Saper said, is opposition to what she described as brutal forms of state repression against Iranian civilians at the hand of the government. 

The current protests are only the latest in many that Saper has witnessed, some firsthand.

“The very first protest was on March 8, 1979, when I was a high school senior in Tehran and I watched thousands of women go to the streets to protest the mandatory hijab,” Saper said. “They were assaulted. Some were attacked by knives and broken glass.”

For Saper, the climate in Iran has changed drastically to the point where citizens are now chanting the phrase “death to the dictator” due to the severity of the situation. 

“Today there’s facial recognition, phone tracking, drones, so that the fear and the danger is not only in the streets,” Saper said. “It’s when you go home, because they can come and arrest you there.”

She said the Islamic Republic runs on a concept called “doshman,” meaning “the enemy,” in which leadership frames internal complaints as a foreign plot. She said that gives the government legal permission to treat students, women and workers as threats to national security. 

“Don’t confuse the Iranian people with the Islamic Republic,” Saper said. “The majority of Iran’s 92 million educated population are trying to live a normal life. When tensions rise, they’re asking: ‘Will the ATM work? Will the internet go dark? Can I reach my family?’” 

Trump claims the death toll in Iran has reached 32,000 as a result of the government’s crackdown on protesters.

However, Ibrahim Abusharif, a professor of journalism and Middle Eastern studies at Northwestern University, believes there is good reason to cast doubt on that number. 

The Human Rights Activists News Agency said more than 7,000 have been killed, while the government of Iran puts the number at 3,000. Iranian officials cast doubt on Trump’s rhetoric, claiming he is leading a disinformation campaign. 

Abusharif believes the truth lies elsewhere. 

“I’m highly suspicious of that number, 32,000, I think it is overblown and, quite frankly, impossible to believe, and so definitely it’s in the thousands,” Abusharif said. “Inflating that is not just a mathematical error, it is part of the media messaging of trying to justify why war is needed.” 

Abusharif drew on the history of U.S. intervention in the region, saying American leaders previously perpetuated false information about Iraq to justify an invasion. 

He asserted the U.S.’s intervention in Iraq and now Iran reflects a power dynamic of global superpowers over what is referred to as the Global South, countries South of the Equator which were formerly colonized by those North of the Equator.  

“You don’t see this–in what they call the Global North, you see it toward the Global South, this position of superiority — with regard to other nations that they can do what they wish.” Abusharif added. 

He made an important distinction, however, noting that “if we say a regime change is not a good idea, does not mean we’re accepting and offering compliments to the current regime.” 

For Abusharif, it is important to reflect on how narratives about Iran are being spun to avoid demonization, because the consequence could result in public pressure for military action. 

Ultimately one of the things that most concerns him about this situation, is the role of the press when covering the conflict in Iran, to which he believes lines up too closely with American foreign policy for the region. 

“I think that journalism takes a path on trying to have the typical journalistic rigor of really seeking out informed opinions about certain countries in certain places.” Abusharif said. “The immediate management of the Iran crisis by American media has been following the American foreign policy. This is regrettable. There has been adversarial effort to probe and ask questions that need to be asked and are not asked in the mainstream.” 

‘The Smart Bomb Trap’ and the Foreign Policy Strategy

Robert Pape, a professor of political science at the University of Chicago, recently shared his theory around what he calls the “smart bomb trap” in his Substack, “The Escalation Trap.”

He describes what he sees as a failure in U.S. intervention abroad that results in destabilization of a region, radicalization of victims and military strain on the U.S. 

For Pape, it is characterized by three key stages: 

The first being a precision strike, which in the case of Iran, was last year’s strike on a nuclear program. This usually comes from a fear of hidden weaponization of a targeted nation. 

The second is leadership decapitation or a regime air campaign, as seen with the capture of Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela. Though there has yet to be a regime change in Iran, Trump has openly talked about the possibility of one.  

For Pape, this phase leads to tactical success, but fragments power.

The third is territorial control, which is an open-ended commitment, similar to Venezuela and the agreement between Trump and current President  Delcy Rodríguez.

Like Abusharif, Pape referenced the war in Iraq in 2003. He believes the same strategy is being applied to Iran. 

“That led to terrorism, a civil war, and 20 years of a forever war,” Pape said. “Why did we go in to build democracy? There was lots of pro-democracy movements. I am very pro-democracy. The way to build democracy is not at the barrel of a gun. And (during the State of the Union), you heard he’s worried Iran’s going to get a bomb again. He’s admitting failure. That is the normal cycle, and of the smart bomb trap.” 

Despite the increasing military presence surrounding Iran, Richard Porter, an attorney, longtime member of the Republican National Committee and former White House advisor to President George H. W. Bush believes war remains off the table. 

“I think that there is no taste in the Republican administration for boots on the ground in any extended or massive way in Iran, I think in the wake of Iraq and Afghanistan, the president has promised no more far away forever wars, and I think that would severely damage his standing politically, if he were to launch a war that looks and smells like the Iraq War,” Porter said. 

Despite Pape’s theory, Porter believes an essential part of the Trump administration’s strategy, like with Venezuela, is to identify key leaders in Iran who could have a sustainable relationship with the United States.

Porter believes the Iranian government has a “monomaniacal focus” that is aimed at surrounding nations to spread their revolution. 

“So, we have to get them to change their stripes,” Porter said. “And it’s very unlikely that that’s going to be the case. And for that to occur, there has to be personnel change. I think some people have to die, and you have to have new people that are going to be the, you know, the leaders of Iran. I mean, that’s the only way you see a change in Iran.”

Iran Responds to State of the Union Speech

Trump touched on Iran and the nuclear negotiations in his State of the Union speech late Tuesday in Washington.

“They’ve already developed missiles that can threaten Europe and our bases overseas, and they’re working to build missiles that will soon reach the United States of America,” Trump said. “They were warned to make no future attempts to rebuild their weapons program, and in particular nuclear weapons, yet they continue. They’re starting it all over.”

Satellite photos analyzed earlier by the AP showed Iran beginning to rebuild its missile-production sites and doing some work at the three nuclear sites attacked by the U.S. in June. Iran has long maintained that its nuclear program is peaceful.

The West and the International Atomic Energy Agency say Iran had a nuclear weapons program until 2003. Before the June attack, it had been enriching uranium up to 60% purity — a short, technical step away from weapons-grade levels of 90%.

Responding to Trump, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei sought to compare him to Joseph Goebbels, Adolf Hitler’s propaganda minister. He accused Trump and his administration of conducting a “disinformation & misinformation campaign” against Iran.

“Whatever they’re alleging in regards to Iran’s nuclear program, Iran’s ballistic missiles, and the number of casualties during January’s unrest is simply the repetition of ‘big lies,’“ Baghaei wrote on X.

Trump said in his speech that at least 32,000 people were killed in last month’s protests, which is at the far end of estimates offered by activists for the death toll. The U.S.-based Human Rights Activist News Agency has so far counted more than 7,000 dead and believes the actual figure is far higher. Iran’s government, which long has downplayed death tolls in other unrest, offered its only toll on Jan. 21, saying 3,117 people were killed.

Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, Iran’s parliament speaker, said separately that the U.S. could either try diplomacy or face Iran’s wrath.

“If you choose the table of diplomacy — a diplomacy in which the dignity of the Iranian nation and mutual interests are respected — we will also be at that table,” Qalibaf said, according to the semiofficial Student News Network, a media outlet believed to be close to the all-volunteer Basij force of Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard.

“But if you decide to repeat past experiences through deception, lies, flawed analysis and false information, and launch an attack in the midst of negotiations, you will undoubtedly taste the firm blow of the Iranian nation and the country’s defensive forces.”

Talks Hang in Balance

Iran and the U.S. are to meet Thursday for their third round of talks under the mediation of Oman, long an interlocutor between Tehran and the West. A flight carrying Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and his team arrived late Wednesday in Geneva, where they will meet American officials led by special U.S. Mideast envoy Steve Witkoff.

U.S. Vice President JD Vance said Trump has been clear that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon.

“That would be the ultimate military objective if that’s the route that he chose,” Vance told Fox News.

He said Trump prefers settling the matter using diplomacy but will unleash the military against Iran if necessary. “Most Americans understand that you can’t let the craziest and the worst regime in the world have nuclear weapons,” Vance said.

Asked whether removing Iran’s supreme leader was also an aim, Vance said that Trump would “make the decision about how to ensure Iran does not have a nuclear weapon.”

If the talks fail, uncertainty hangs over the timing of any possible attack.

If the aim of potential military action is to pressure Iran to make concessions in nuclear negotiations, it’s not clear whether limited strikes would work. If the goal is to remove Iran’s leaders, that will likely commit the U.S. to a larger, longer military campaign. There has been no public sign of planning for what would come next, including the potential for chaos in Iran.

The status of Iran’s nuclear program is another mystery. Trump said last year that American strikes “obliterated” it. Now dismantling whatever remains of the program appears to be back on the administration’s agenda. IAEA inspectors have not been allowed to inspect those sites and verify what remains.

There is also uncertainty about what any military action could mean for the wider region. Tehran could retaliate against the American-allied nations of the Persian Gulf or Israel. Oil prices have risen in recent days in part due to those concerns.

---